After running a simulation or simulations, you get the results. This section explains the results that are given.
The results of a simulation or simulations are presented in tabular and chart form. Two different types of tabular results are presented: final results and detailed results. Final results concern the simulation as a whole, and detailed results are presented day-by-day for the duration of the simulation.
Results are available for every possible combination of a strategy and a stock, but are only presented for one combination at a time. You use the popup buttons in the toolbar to choose the stock and strategy of the displayed results.
Final results are results at the end of the simulation period. These give you a general idea of how well a strategy performs, and how much risk it involves, without showing any specific day-to-day details.
First trading day of simulation The first date in the simulation for which trading data was available. Note that this may not be be the same as the date you entered as the starting date in the Trading Specifications, if there was no trading on the day you entered. Note also that it is not necessarily the first day considered for trading in the simulation, because most simulations need spare days (i.e. lookback) at the beginning of the simulation range before the strategy expressions can be properly evaluated.
Last trading day of simulation The last date in the simulation for which trading data was available. Note that this may not be be the same as the date you entered as the finishing date in the Trading Specifications. It is usually the last day considered for trading in the simulation, but for certain "unrealistic" strategies, which use data from the future (i.e. data for day "0" or days thereafter), it may not be. In such cases, the simulation needs spare days at the end of the simulation range in order to properly evaluate the strategy expressions.
Total final value (cash and stock) This is the total value of the portfolio at the end of the simulation. This includes all cash and stock. The monetary value of the stock is evaluated at the close of the last day for which there is data; no commission is deducted in the conversion.
Final balance The cash available upon completion of the simulation. It does not include any stock owned at the end of the simulation.
Number of shares owned The number of shares owned in the stock upon completion of the simulation.
Number of buy trades made The total number of times that a buy trade was made during the simulation.
Number of sell trades made The total number of times that a sell trade was made during the simulation.
Maximum portfolio value during simulation The maximum total value of the portfolio on any day of the simulation. The total value includes cash and stock owned. The value of the stock is converted to cash at the close price, with no commission deducted.
Minimum portfolio value during simulation The minimum total value of the portfolio on any day of the simulation. The total value includes cash and stock owned. The value of the stock is converted to cash at the close price, with no commission deducted.
Percentage of winning trade combinations A trade combination is defined as a series of trades initiated with no shares owned, and ending with no shares owned. The simplest example of such a combination is buying some shares, and then selling them all again. The combination only ends when the number of shares owned drops to zero. So a combination could consist of two buys and a sell, for example. This result is the percentage of combinations for which the total value of the portfolio increases, i.e., a winning trade combination.
Average percentage win for winning trade combinations This is the expected percentage increase in portfolio value for any winning combination averaged over the simulation.
Standard deviation of percentage win for winning trade combinations This is the standard deviation of the percentage increase in portfolio value for winning combinations. It is an indication of how much the percentage increase varies on average from the mean winning percentage.
Average percentage loss for losing trade combinations A losing trade combination is a trade combination that results in a decrease in portfolio value. This result is the expected percentage decrease in portfolio value for any losing combination averaged over the simulation.
Standard deviation of percentage loss for losing trade combinations This is the standard deviation of the percentage decrease in portfolio value for losing combinations. It is an indication of how much the percentage decrease varies on average from the mean losing percentage.
Largest single day gain in portfolio value The maximum gain in the value of the portfolio (stocks plus cash) during the simulation, from the close on one day to the close on the next. This is expressed as a percentage of the first of the two close prices.
Largest continuous multi-day gain The maximum continuous percentage gain in the value of the portfolio (stocks plus cash) during the simulation. "Continuous" in this sense means that the value of the portfolio must increase from day close to day close, without decreasing. A "continuous gain" can occur over several days. In order for the gain to continue, only the close price has to increase from day to day: within a single day, the price may rise or fall. The gain is expressed as a percentage of the first of the close prices in the period of the continuous gain.
Largest single day loss in portfolio value The maximum loss in the value of the portfolio (stocks plus cash) during the simulation, from the close on one day to the close on the next. This is expressed as a percentage of the first of the two close prices.
Largest continuous multi-day loss The maximum continuous percentage loss in the value of the portfolio (stocks plus cash) during the simulation. "Continuous" in this sense means that the value of the portfolio must decrease from day close to day close, without increasing. A "continuous loss" can occur over several days. In order for the loss to continue, only the close price has to decrease from day to day: within a single day, the price may rise or fall. The loss is expressed as a percentage of the first of the close prices in the period of the continuous loss.
Detailed results are day-by-day results. These give you specific details about the day-to-day performance of a strategy: when it signals to buy or sell, how much the portfolio value changes each day, etc. You can use these results to see how your strategies can be improved.
The detailed results are presented in pairs of rows in a table. The first row shows the signal that was generated by the strategy before the open of trading. The row directly below the row showing the signal presents the results for the trading day. So, remember that the signal shown in a row applies to the trading day in the row directly below it.
The results shown are as follows:
Date The date for which the detailed results are given.
Close The close price of the stock for the day in question. Note that this price is adjusted for dividends and stock splits.
% C.P. (Percentage Change in Price) The change in the close price from the previous day, as a percentage of the price on the previous day.
Total Value The total value of the portfolio (cash and shares) at the close of the day in question. Shares are converted to cash at the close price with no commission deducted.
% C.T.V. (Percentage Change in Total Value) The change in total value of the portfolio from the previous day, as a percentage of the price on the previous day.
C.S.O. (Change in Shares Owned) The change in the number of shares owned from the previous day. A positive number indictates more shares are owned on the current day than the previous day; a negative number indicates less shares are owned on the current day.
S.O. (Shares Owned) The number of shares owned at the close of the day.
Balance The cash balance at the close of the day. This does not include any share value.
Open The open price of the stock for the day in question. Note that this price is adjusted for dividends and stock splits.
High The high price of the stock for the day in question. Note that this price is adjusted for dividends and stock splits.
Low The low price of the stock for the day in question. Note that this price is adjusted for dividends and stock splits.
Volume The trading volume of the stock for the day in question.
Chart results, like detailed results, are day-by-day results. But chart results are presented graphically, and so are much more useful for quickly identifying when a strategy performs well, and when it doesn't.
Total Value of Portfolio This shows the sum value of shares-owned, and cash, as a function of time.
Buy and Sell Signals This chart indicates when buy and sell signals were generated by the strategy. Buy signals point upward, and are green in color. Sell signals are red, and point downwards.
Open-High-Low-Close Price The standard bar chart for price. The day range is indicated by the vertical bar. The open price is indicated by a tick to the left, and the close price by a tick to the right.
Trading Volume The trading volume shown as a histogram. Each vertical line represents the volume on a single trading day.
If you are dealing with results for several different stocks and/or strategies, you may wish to compare them directly. Checking the 'Synchronize Scrollbars' checkbox can help in this case: When you select a different stock or strategy, the newly displayed results will be scrolled to the position of last results displayed, meaning you don't need to manually scroll to find the relevant place in the data. The scrollbars of both the Detailed Results Table and Charts are synchronized when the checkbox is selected.